Understanding Sequence of Returns Risk

Derek J. Sensenig, MBA, Ph.D., CFP®, RICP® • May 1, 2024

When planning for retirement, one crucial factor often overlooked is the sequence of returns risk. This term refers to the variability and uncertainty of the order in which investment returns occur and is particularly impactful during the withdrawal phase in retirement. Unlike average returns that blend gains and losses over the years into a smooth figure, sequence of returns emphasizes the timing of these returns, especially when you start withdrawing money from your retirement savings.

 A clear illustration of sequence of returns risk can be seen in the comparative analysis outlined in the table below.

Portfolio A displays the investment returns from 2000 to 2016 in chronological order, while Portfolio B presents these same returns in reverse order. The results are telling: Portfolio A concludes the period with a remaining balance of $183,093, whereas Portfolio B finishes with a significantly higher balance of $582,674—a stark difference of $399,580. This disparity highlights the profound impact that early negative returns can have on the sustainability of a portfolio during the initial phases of retirement withdrawals.

This risk is unique because it underscores that it’s not just how much your investments return on average, but when these returns occur relative to when you are drawing on your investments.

Sequence of Returns Risk During Accumulation vs. Distribution Phases 

The sequence of returns risk affects individuals differently depending on whether they are in the accumulation phase (saving for retirement) or the distribution phase (withdrawing during retirement). During the accumulation phase, the risk is relatively low. Over a long period, the highs and lows of market returns tend to average out. Early losses can be offset by later gains, and since there are no withdrawals reducing the balance, the portfolio has more time to recover from downturns. This is often referred to as 'dollar-cost averaging,' where ongoing investments can buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when prices are high, potentially reducing the average cost per share over time.

However, during the distribution phase, when retirees begin withdrawing funds to cover living expenses, the sequence of returns becomes critically important. Starting your retirement during a bear market or a period of low returns can deplete your savings more rapidly than if the same returns occurred later. This difference stems from having to sell off more investments to maintain the same withdrawal rate, potentially locking in losses and reducing the amount of capital that can benefit from future market recoveries.

Mitigating Sequence of Returns Risk 

Fortunately, there are multiple strategies to mitigate the sequence of returns risk, ensuring a more stable financial foundation during retirement:

1.  Maintain a cash reserve: Having a cash buffer can help manage withdrawals during market downturns without having to sell investments at a loss. This reserve can act as a financial shock absorber, allowing the portfolio more time to recover

2 .Diversify your investment portfolio: A well-diversified portfolio that includes a mix of stocks, bonds, and other assets can help buffer against market volatility. Bonds and other fixed-income investments often provide returns that counterbalance the risks of equity markets, offering steadier income streams during down periods.

3. Use a conservative withdrawal rate: Adhering to a conservative withdrawal strategy, such as the 4% rule, can reduce the risk of depleting your retirement funds too early. This strategy involves withdrawing a fixed, sustainable percentage from your portfolio each year, adjusted for inflation, regardless of market conditions.

4. Consider annuities: Annuities can provide a guaranteed income stream regardless of market conditions, which can be particularly useful to cover basic living expenses. This can reduce the pressure on the investment portfolio to perform, particularly during the critical early years of retirement

5. Delay Social Security benefits: Opting to delay the start of Social Security benefits can increase the monthly benefits, providing a larger financial base later in retirement. This can be a strategic move to counteract poor market performance in the early years of retirement.

By understanding and preparing for the sequence of returns risk, retirees can better safeguard their financial future, ensuring that they have enough funds to enjoy their retirement years without undue stress over market conditions. These strategies can help create a buffer against timing risks, making the transition from the accumulation to distribution phase smoother and more secure.

If you're interested in learning how to implement strategies that mitigate sequence of returns risk, we invite you to schedule an initial consultation. At Encompass Advisory Services, an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm, we are committed to partnering with you to navigate through your retirement planning with expertise and care.

Stacks of $100 bills on open book with a cross necklace.
By Jason W. Ceyanes, Sr., Ph.D., CFP® October 21, 2025
When I speak about stewardship—whether in the context of financial planning, family leadership, or faith—I’m not just referring to managing money well. Stewardship, in its truest biblical sense, is about ownership and trust. It’s the recognition that God owns everything , and we are simply caretakers of what He has entrusted to us. Psalm 24:1 declares, “The earth is the Lord’s, and everything in it, the world, and all who live in it.” That verse sets the foundation for a proper understanding of biblical stewardship: God is the owner; we are the stewards. A steward is someone who manages the affairs of another. In biblical times, a steward might have overseen a household, managed crops, or distributed resources on behalf of the master. Today, that stewardship extends into our finances, our families, our health, our time, and our spiritual gifts. Everything we possess—our careers, our influence, our resources—has been temporarily placed in our care. God has made us managers, not owners, and that distinction carries both privilege and accountability . Ownership and Accountability Jesus reinforced this principle in the Parable of the Talents (Matthew 25:14-30). The master entrusts his servants with resources “each according to his ability.” Two servants invest wisely and multiply what they’ve been given; the third hides his portion out of fear. When the master returns, he praises the faithful stewards but rebukes the one who buried his talent. The lesson is timeless: God expects us to use, grow, and multiply what He has placed in our hands—not to waste it or guard it out of fear. Stewardship requires faith in action. It’s not about how much we have, but how faithfully we manage what we’ve been given. In modern terms, this means we are accountable for every resource God has entrusted to us—our money, our children, our businesses, our influence, and our opportunities. Luke 16:10 reminds us, “Whoever can be trusted with very little can also be trusted with much.” True stewardship begins with faithfulness in the small things. If we’re careless with little, we cannot be trusted with greater blessings. Stewardship and Generosity One of the most visible expressions of stewardship is generosity. When we give, we acknowledge that what we have belongs to God. Giving is not about losing something—it’s about returning what already belongs to Him. Second Corinthians 9:6-7 teaches that “whoever sows sparingly will also reap sparingly, and whoever sows generously will also reap generously.” Generosity is the fruit of gratitude and trust. It declares that our confidence is not in our bank accounts or possessions, but in the Provider Himself. As a financial planner and Christian leader, I’ve seen this principle change lives. When people move from ownership to stewardship, fear gives way to freedom. They begin to see money not as a master, but as a ministry tool —a way to advance God’s purposes. Stewardship is about aligning financial decisions with eternal values. It’s budgeting with wisdom, investing with purpose, and giving with joy. Stewardship Beyond Finances Stewardship extends far beyond money. It encompasses how we treat our bodies, how we raise our families, and how we use our time and talents. First Peter 4:10 tells us, “Each of you should use whatever gift you have received to serve others, as faithful stewards of God’s grace in its various forms.” Our lives are a sacred trust. Whether you are a teacher, business owner, pastor, or parent, your calling is a form of stewardship. God has given you influence and responsibility. How you use them reveals your heart toward Him. Time, for example, is one of our most valuable yet limited resources. Every hour we waste is one we can never recover. Colossians 3:23-24 instructs us to “work heartily, as for the Lord and not for men.” Stewardship means living intentionally—working diligently, resting wisely, and remembering that even our leisure can glorify God when it’s used to refresh and restore the vessel He’s entrusted to His purposes. The Eternal Perspective Ultimately, stewardship is an act of worship. It’s the daily decision to honor God with all that we have and all that we are. It’s saying, “Lord, I recognize that none of this is mine. I am merely the manager of Your blessings.” When we live with that mindset, everything changes. We stop chasing temporary success and start investing in eternal impact. In the end, the question we will each face is not “How much did you earn?” or “What did you build?” but rather, “How faithful were you with what I gave you?” The faithful steward lives with eternity in view—using today’s resources to shape tomorrow’s Kingdom. As Proverbs 3:5-6 reminds us, “Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways submit to Him, and He will make your paths straight.” That is the heartbeat of biblical stewardship—trusting God fully, managing His blessings wisely, and walking faithfully until the day He says, “Well done, good and faithful servant.”
a cross, the bible and some money showing faith with financial health
By Jason W. Ceyanes, Sr., Ph.D., CFP® April 19, 2024
By integrating our faith into our financial planning, we can cultivate a sense of purpose and direction that transcends mere monetary goals.
By Scott Hansen, FSCP® August 25, 2023
Retirement is a major life change, and it's important to be prepared for it. There are a number of factors to consider when transitioning into retirement, including your financial situation, your health, your lifestyle, your social connections, and your emotional well-being. It is important to work with an independent financial professional who can help you get organized, discuss your needs and assess your financial readiness to move into retirement.
By Jason W. Ceyanes, Sr., Ph.D., CFP® June 20, 2023
The time value of money is a fundamental concept in finance that refers to the idea that money today is worth more than the same amount of money in the future. This is because money today can be invested and earn interest, while money in the future is subject to inflation and loses value over time. When it comes to long-term savings, understanding the time value of money is crucial. Here are five points to keep in mind: